Tidings Magazine

Water is the major component of the human body — and the same is true for grapes. The pH of your stomach acid is about the same as the pH of wine (which is why wine is good for your digestion).

So it may not be too much of a stretch to suggest that wine, being the most human of beverages, will be subject to the same forces that govern population growth. Thomas Malthus, the eighteenth-century British demographer and political economist, in a 1789 paper, posited that population grows in geometric proportion while the food supply grows only in arithmetic proportions. Mankind, he argued, will not be able to sustain itself if it goes on procreating the way it has been.

There are checks, however: wars, pandemics and natural disasters are Nature’s way of controlling population growth. I’m beginning to think the same thing is happening to wine.

First the bad news. Once the dust settles on the Beijing Olympics in 2008, wine prices for the world’s icon wines will rise significantly. Romanée-Conti, Pétrus, First-Growth Bordeaux and Château d’Yquem will be out of range for all but the mega-rich. This pressure on supply will affect prices for second-tier fine wines and have a trickle-down effect.

Why? Because the wealthy Chinese will witness how Western businessmen entertain in Beijing hotels and restaurants — and millionaires like to have what other millionaires have. Namely, the world’s great wines. There is only a limited supply of each vintage of the above-mentioned wines, which means that their prices will go up.

Now the good news. Regions that hitherto supplied the market with wallet-friendly but eminently drinkable wines will fill the gap with more elegant — and slightly more costly — versions of wines they already sell.